According to a report titled ‘The State of RMG in India’ published by global intelligence platform Egomonk, India’s overall transaction volumes will drop by at least ₹30,000 crore ($3.6 billion) every month as a result of the ban.

In the short term, this squeeze is putting pressure on revenue stability and operating margins, particularly for fintech players with heavy reliance on gambling and betting flows.

– Leo Romano, Chief Payment Officer, Einpays Global Ltd

Data from the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) shows that Unified Payments Interface (UPI) processed ₹10,077 crore ($1.2 billion) worth of payments in July under the category “Digital Goods: Games”. This represented 1.38 percent of total transaction value for the month. In terms of transaction count, 35.1 crore (351 million) payments were recorded in this category, making up 2.8 percent of the overall UPI volume.

Based on these figures industry insiders estimate that the ban on RMG will cost UPI around 25 crore (250 million) transactions valued at ₹5,040 crore ($604 million) every month.

Sartaj Anand, founder of Egomonk, pointed out that the impact on UPI itself will remain contained. Anand explained that RMG activity, though significant in its category, accounts for a relatively small share of overall UPI payments. “Payments isn’t a monolithic opportunity. UPI is fairly insulated from RMG because of low volumes. Similarly, market leaders such as Razorpay and Cashfree will be able to weather this disruption because they’re well-capitalised and relatively strong in diversification,” Anand said.

Anand cautioned, however, that smaller fintechs remain at risk. “Fintechs such as PayKun and offshore processors who are smaller but have material exposure to the RMG sector may likely shut shop or struggle with a hard pivot to other B2B2C segments. If they don’t have the financial runway or marketing muscle to diversify quickly then they will find themselves in a dire situation,” Anand added

While the RMG ban has drawn attention to the vulnerability of payment gateways analysts suggest that the broader payments landscape in India remains resilient. UPI continues to post record highs in both value and volume, supported by its deep integration across e-commerce, bill payments, peer-to-peer transfers and offline merchant use.